Middle Earth 2018 Commentary

Another year of many disappointments was 2017 for me, especially since my old rival Klent eliminated me in round two of the playoffs on his way to a second career championship. Our draft day has come and gone, and the NFL kicks off on Thursday. Will Klent be the first back to back champion in league history? Probably. What do I know about winning anyway? 

Here is my analysis for 2018:

First, I’m doing to ditch the format I was using. I honestly can’t decide who I think is in the top three. I believe that almost everyone is a wild card this year and no particular team stands out as a super team to me at this point. I will touch on a few teams that have certain features that I like (or don’t) instead…

Andwise Puddifoot (Jake Thompson) 

I’m going to borrow from Lil’ Jon here…BACKS! BACKS! BACKS BACKS BACKBACKS! Jake’s got them and you probably don’t. Zeke’s been like a son to Jake, according to Jake himself, and the combination of David Johnson, though coming off of a serious injury, gives him an advantage. He also has a nice combination of receivers that will compliment his strong backfield. I think Jake will go somewhere around 9-4, unless he gets beat by the schedule again this year.

Dol Guldor Tsundere Towers (Braxton Koehler)

…BACKS! BACKS! BACKS! BACKS! BACKBACKS! Have you already heard this one? Braxton has Gurley and Melvin Gordon in his backfield with a decent receiving corps around them. He also has Aaron Rodgers. It’s never a bad decision to take Rodgers…unless you take him too early, which Braxton possibly did by taking him in the 2^nd. He also wasted two picks at the end of the draft. While they usually aren’t important picks, our not having a kicker position didn’t do Braxton’s favorite player Gostkowski any hope of actually making his team. I predict that Braxton will go around 10-3, because he’s Braxton.

Prancing Ponies (Seth Svebakken)

Seth gave zero faith to running backs this year and his best and starting running back is Jay Ajayi. He also passed on Odell Beckham Jr. with his first pick in favor of AJ Green. I actually am going to predict Seth to have a high winning ratio, but I can tell you from experience last year that having an overloaded receiving corps will only leave you with heartbreak in the playoffs (I had Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Kyle Rudolph, Chris Hogan and Dion Lewis. They gave me around 9 points combined.) 10-3, but eliminated in round one or two of the playoffs.

Manning Helm’s Deep (John Barrett)

John took a bold pick in round two with Deshaun Watson. It’s not that I don’t like Deshaun or the pick, it’s just that it was in ROUND TWO. You don’t take a QB until round 5 or 6! Tragically for John, his top pick of Jerrick McKinnon tore his ACL on the last play of the last day of practice right after our draft wrapped up, and that’s going to sting. Due to the injury, I believe that John will fall to around 5-8 this season. 

Playoff Predictions

Now that I’ve commented on a few teams here and there, I’ll reach up into the air, grab a prediction by the tail and put it into my pocket. Here are my playoff predictions:

Miss the playoffs:

• The Shire Hobbit Weed
• Manning Helm’s Deep
• Newton’s Nazgul?
• Nathan’s Cowboys (because of the name of Tim’s team, and only that. He should compete otherwise!)

Runner up: Riders of Romohan

Champion: Saucy’s Werewolves

Gotham Commentary, 2017

By special request, I will start doing my analysis of Gotham each year, in additional to Middle Earth. Gotham is in it's 3rd year, and is a dynasty league. Klent Starks was our first Champion and Dave Groves is the defending champ. Will Dave repeat? Will Klent make his second playoff appearance? Find out below!

Top Three

Gotham's Reckoning (Nathan Koehler)

I have one of the best teams, no question. I drafted well, and I've made the trades I needed to give myself a legitimate shot at a Championship. The problem? I've never won in any league. There's going to be a lot that I will have to overcome. I have Rodgers, Freeman, AJ Green and Antonio Brown as my core, but barring injury, I should have a shot for the next few seasons.

The Odell Beckham Joker (Colin Capps)

Colin is The Reckoning's Evil Twin. He has a plethora of fantastic receivers and Colin has the smarts to continue to build and rebuild on the fly. Beckham, Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson and Greg Olsen lead his receiving corps and what an impressive group that is! Colin's running backs are a bit suspect, which may be his only weakness.

Beware The BatBear (Kevin and Braxton Koehler)

When Dad and Braxton combine forces, you know to expect great things. The BatBear has been consistently good, but will be hampered by the loss of David Johnson this season. Speaking of injuries, the BatBear is already have some issues with the loss of Andrew Luck for an unknown time and the inevitable injury of Big Ben at some point in the season. I'm still not worried about the team and expect them to make the big dance.

Wild Card

The Asylum (David Groves)

Dave clearly has a good team, since he's the defending champ. However, I'm placing him into the wild card slot as he's reliant solely on the Patriots. It did win him a Championship last year, but I don't think that will be a sustaining strategy going forward. However, this season, he may still make a big run. As of this writing, Gronk and Brady are back!

Miss Playoffs

Team Starks (Klent Starks) 

Klent is rebuilding his team a bit. He's certainly gotten better but may still struggle this year. It happens. At least it's a Dynasty League! I expect that Klent will return to his former glory sooner rather than later.

Middle Earth Fantasy Football Commentary, 2017

As is my tradition, I'm going to evaluate all of the teams that we've put together in our Middle Earth Fantasy Football league (a week late, no less, but I'm trying). It took Jonathan three years to rebuild the team he was given, but he prevailed and won his second Championship, and now wears The One Ring as his prize. Will he repeat? Find out below!

Top Three

Andwise Puttifoot (Jake Thompson)

Jake took Zeke at #1 overall last year and was the best team in the league during the regular season. He was also voted as MVP. Unfortunately for Jake, he met John in round one of the playoffs and was sent packing. Jake has again built a great team, and with Zeke set to play the full season, he's sitting pretty with a stacked roster. Since I'm doing this post-week one, I can say that the loss of David Johnson will hurt Jake, but no doubt that he will find a great replacement on waivers.

Rubber Ducky Rohirrim (Kevin Koehler)

Am I getting redundant with putting Dad in the top three every year? Maybe, but I can't deny his talent for building great teams. He has two top WRs in Mike Evans and Amari Cooper and his running backs, Ty Montgomery and Kareem Hunt, should be consistent to lead Dad to another great season. The question for him (just like me) is, can he make it through the playoffs?

Minas Morgul Scream (Nathan Koehler)

Yes, I'm putting myself in the top three. I've tried to be humble, but I think I have a good team this year. My keepers, Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown, will be great and Le'Veon Bell will lead my running game, barring any injuries and shaking off his post-holdout daze. If I can stay healthy, I believe I have a good shot at making a deep playoff run.

Wild Card(s)

Newton's Nazgul (Jonathan Barrett)

Jonathan is great owner and has proven that he can be left with absolute garbage to build from and still win a Championship. He has a solid running core but has already been battered by injuries. No doubt, though, that he can keep rebuilding his team through waivers as he has shown over the many years. I'm placing him as a wild card because even when he hasn't had some of the bigger names in the game, he's still won The Ring.

Bonus Wild Card

Manning Helm's Deep (John Barrett)

John is the unsuspecting type of player that will creep up with a few wins, squeak into the playoffs and then upset teams that should never lose (i.e. Jake). He's shown, too, that he can take The Ring for himself and always bodes well, despite lacking some of the bigger name players (like father, like son?). John will rely on LeSean McCoy and Doug Baldwin, but that hasn't hindered him in the past. John may be a sleeper team that could shock someone in the playoffs.

Miss Playoffs

Riders of Romohan (Colin Capps)

Honestly, Colin probably doesn't deserve to be here in the Miss Playoffs slot, and I may be very wrong to put him here (but I'm going to anyway!). Colin is going to live or die by Odell Beckham, AKA Eli Manning and Jay Ajayi. I'm sure he will fix up some of his team's issues via trade or FA, but it's possible that he will struggle this season unless he makes a blockbuster trade.

2016 Beach Bucket List

Hey there! Later this month, Nathan and I will be going to the beach for the first time in 2 years, so we decided to put together a Bucket List to build anticipation! Enjoy!

Check out our other bucket lists, also!

2016 Middle Earth Fantasy Football

Last year, I posted my predictions in the blog about how I thought a few of our teams would do in Middle Earth, and so by popular demand, I will post my thoughts here again. ESPN no longer offers the draft report cards, so I will also include FantasyPro's rankings on each team, also.

TOP THREE (in no particular order)

Riders of Romohan (Colin Capps)

Is anyone surprised by this? Should I even bother saying much? Commissioner Colin seems to toy with our league every season and why should this year be any different? According to Fantasy Pros, he has the best team in the league, getting the only 100% score. I am a bit miffed at him since he took Keenan Allen in the first round, as that was the player that I WAS TARGETING. But I'm not mad. I believe that Colin could be the Blackhawks of Middle Earth and could go for three rings in six years, while becoming the first team ever to win thrice.

Dol Guldur Tsundere Towers (Braxton Koehler)

Like Colin, Braxton owns this league. I thought Braxton traded his way right out of contention last season but evidently, he didn't even need Cam Newton or Greg Olsen to win his second Championship Ring (side note: we actually bought The One Ring of power as our trophy and Braxton can now turn invisible). Braxton kept Antonio Brown and Jordan Reed, reacquired Mark Ingram and drafted Sammy Watkins. Fantasy Pros rated him at a 98.1% with his TE, Defense, WR and Flex being very strong. Could we see the Colin/Braxton championship matchup?! Time will tell!

Rubber Ducky Rohirrim (Kevin Koehler)

I'm having a hard time deciding who my third team will be as there are a lot of strong teams in our league, but I'm going with my gut and my heart on this pick. Kevin (or Dad, as I affectionately know him) did as I predicted last season and won not only his first playoff game, but his second and went to the Big Dance! His team played well all season and he ended up tied for the best record and met Braxton in the Championship. Now that the playoff monkey is off of his back, I believe another deep run could be in his future. Fantasy Pros rated teams higher than Dad, but his waiver wire expertise and trades should carry him deep unless he meets some tough injuries. Fantasy Pros ranks him with a 85.7% overall.

Wild Card

Andwise Puddifoot (Jake Thompson)

I'm upgrading Jake to a wild card this season. Last season, he went with a ton of RBs in the beginning of the draft and ended up in last place. This year, he decided to do...the same thing. He does have much better backs this time, though, as he made the homer pick of Ezekiel Elliott (Cowgirls NERD!) and kept David Johnson. His weakness, though, is the same as last year...not great receivers. And in a PPR league, receivers win championships (you can ask Braxton). So, the question will be, will Jake's RBs been good enough/catch enough to balance out his riskiness in taking WR very late in the draft? Fantasy Pros put Jake as the number three overall team with a score of 89.2%.

No Playoffs!

Shire County Studs (Klent Starks)

Klent may prove me wrong, and if so, bully for him! However, Mr. Starks seems to have not caught on to the fact that you never take a QB in the early rounds...come on, man! Klent went bold with taking Aaron Rodgers as his second overall pick. That does give him a premier QB, but limited his options in RB and WR considering the wealth that was also available at that time. His receivers are middle of the road, his flex position is weak and he's playing it risky with Thomas Rawls and Doug Martin as his top running backs. Will Klent prove me wrong? Probably...at least when he and I play. Fantasy Pros rated Klent second to last in the league with a 81.9% overall rating. (Sorry, Klent!)

Here are all of the ratings from Fantasy Pros (this does NOT reflect my opinion...just theirs.):

Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Score
1	Riders of Romohan	100.0%
2	Dol Guldur Tsundere Towers	98.1%
3	Andwise Puddifoot	89.2%
4	Saucy's Werewolves	87.8%
5	Russeldell Elves	87.2%
6	Rubber Ducky Rohirrim	85.7%
7	Seami Dolphawks	84.8%
8	Minas Morgul Scream	83.0%
9	Frodo And Boromir	82.7%
10	Prancing Ponies	82.7%
11	Shire County Studs	81.9%
12	Mines of Moria Mountain T...	77.2%

What do you think? Let me know.

Click here to see last year's predictions.

Fantasy Football Predictions

For the last eight years or so, I have been playing fantasy football. While our league and a few managers (the other guys I play with are referred to as owners or managers or whatever, depending on how I'm feeling) have primarily stayed the same, there are two things that remain consistent...I have never won any fantasy football league, and my dad has never won a playoff game. Could this be the year that I win and Dad makes it to the semi finals...?! Maybe. Read on to see my hilarious predictions! (Note here: these predictions and the commentary is based on what each team currently has. This will change as players are injured, trades are made and players are taken off of the free agency. Also, I'm not going to comment on every team...I will pick my top three, a wild card and a prediction for missing the playoffs. And yes, the league is Lord of the Rings Themed.)

TOP THREE in no particular order.

The Rubber Ducky Rohirrim! (Kevin Koehler)

That's right! I'm picking my dad to exorcise his playoff demons and make a deep run into the playoffs! This may seem like a bit of a biased pick, which is fine, because it is. I'd be just as happy if Dad won the championship as I would be if I won. His WRs are strong, and he has THE Quarterback, Tom Brady, at the helm once again. I think that Brady will probably come out furiously after the Deflategate scandal, and will lead Dad to his first playoff victory...and perhaps more! Know what else he has? Smarts! Dad's only enemy is that he can overthink his team, but if he makes the right moves during the season, watch out! 

Riders of Romohan! (Colin Capps)

I'm not sure that any team can beat Colin, really. Injuries devastated the Riders last season, but did that even hinder him? It doesn't seem like it! He still managed to win his second championship in Middle Earth, becoming the only manager to ever win twice. While I will admit that I'm still a little sore over losing to him in the playoffs last year, Colin has my vote to be the first to win three Championships over the next few seasons. He plays the waiver wire well, and even if injuries come his way, he can rebuild his team and make another run as defending Champ.

Russeldell Elves (Jonathan Barrett)

Colin's massacre of my team in the playoffs is a bit closer to my mind since it happened recently but I haven't forgotten my only trip to the Championship! Jonathan's team made a furious comeback those many moons ago with only three or four players left to stomp me into the dirt for his first championship....jerk. But, I give credit where credit is due (and not just because he's my brother from another mother), so here is to you, O Mighty One! Jonathan has what Colin and my dad have...the brains to build a team to win. Jonathan trades right, and picks up the right people off of the waiver wire, and that makes him dangerous. He was left with a crappy team to pick keepers from, and bear-ly (hahahaha...bears) missed the playoffs last season. This season, it would genuinely surprise me not to see Jonathan make a championship run.

WILD CARD

Prancing Ponies! (Seth Svebakken)

Seth has been in last place the last two seasons, but no more! I sent him the top WR in a trade during the offseason, and Seth has drafted well. Barring any injuries, I think that Seth will make the playoffs this year. Romo gets a ton of points, and Julio Jones will be a PPR monster. The only question marks I have for him is will his running backs show up, and will he be able to avoid the injury bug? 

NO PLAYOFFS

Andwise Puddifoot! (Jake Thompson)

It's hard not to be intimidated by a team that's named the Puddifoots. It is so intimidating, in fact, that Jake himself was scared, and boy, did it affect his drafting! Not sure why Jake drafted 4 running backs and only one wide receiver in the first five rounds, but he did. He does have great RBs, however, in our new PPR format, I think he will struggle. However, Jake is one of the greatest fantasy football managers I know. He has years of experience in PPR formats, and has won fame, glory and a lot of money from playing in other leagues. If he does miss the playoffs this year, I believe that he will make a roaring comeback to compete next season (since we are semi-keeper). As an added bonus to this, now that I've commented on Jake's team, I predict that when he and I play, he will punish me by a league-record 353 points! 

ALTERNATE NO PLAYOFFS

Minas Morgul Scream! (Nathan Koehler)

I don't have a lot of faith in my own team. I do have the best quarterback in Andrew Luck, and I feel that I am solid at both receiver and running back, but that may not cut it. I haven't seen the second round of the playoffs in years, and I tend to trade my team right out of contention. I will probably have to rename my team to the Wilhelm Scream, and when I scream while I look at my scores this season, you now know why. The Koehler Curse will continue, and I will have to rebuild for next season already. There's always next year!